Alaska · U.S. Senate
AK Class 2 Senate seat
Coverage: this seat is included in the 2026 national listing.
Candidate source
Candidate source: Alaska Division of Elections (elections.alaska.gov) — Candidates - 2026 General Election, Election Date November 3, 2026 (page last updated September 25, 2026 at 8:16 am) (retrieved 2026-09-28). Absence of a candidate row is never evidence that a race has no candidates.
How the candidate list was checked
Rows read from the official source: 10 · published here: 10 · left out by rule: 0 · held back for review: 0. AK Division of Elections certified candidate page for the 2026 General Election (updated 2026-09-25). US Senate = Class 2 regular (Sullivan, Dan S. (R) incumbent; two same-surname candidates both certified: Sullivan Dan S. and Sullivan Daniel J. Jr. - preserved verbatim). US Representative at-large: Begich (R, incumbent), Hafner (D), Hill (Nonpartisan), McDermott (Registered Libertarian). Status mapping verbatim: "(Certified)" -> qualified_for_general; "Certified Write-In" -> write_in (Senate: Hill Undeclared, McElwain Registered Republican). Party strings as printed ("Registered Republican" etc.). Governor/Lt-Governor and state-legislative sections present in artifact but out of scope. Note: write-in filing deadline was 2026-06-01 and withdrawal deadline 2026-08-31 per the page; page carries no withdrawal markers for federal races. Status fix (batch E final pass): "Certified Write-In" rows (US Senate: Hill, Sidney "Sid" (Undeclared); McElwain, Heather (Registered Republican)) carry status write_in; "(Certified)" rows carry qualified_for_general.
Hot Races · statewide: Tightly polled: the current poll average is D+0.8, within 5 points. Neither is a forecast of this race. How the list works
Boundaries and sources
County–district classifications come from official block-assignment files, cross-checked against Census representations; render geometry is display-only.
Current officeholder
The current officeholder has not been confirmed in this edition. This does not establish that the seat is vacant.
Upcoming contests
2026-11-03 — general
Heikes, Gerald L. · Registered Republican
Qualified for the general-election ballot
Hill, Sidney "Sid" · Undeclared
Declared write-in candidacy
McElwain, Heather · Registered Republican
Declared write-in candidacy
Peltola, Mary · Registered Democrat
Qualified for the general-election ballot
Sullivan, Dan S. · Registered Republican
Qualified for the general-election ballot
Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr. · Registered Republican
Qualified for the general-election ballot
Polling
D+0.8 — Mary Peltola (Democrat) against Dan Sullivan (Republican), averaging each pollster’s latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026: 3 polls from 3 pollsters. Within 5 points: this race is on the Hot Races list as tightly polled.
A poll average describes what recent surveys found. Each poll has its own sampling error, larger for smaller samples. The average is not a forecast and not a probability. Matchup: named in the 3 most recent polls. 4 polls in the source were left out: party-sponsored or internal polls, other matchups, duplicate versions of the same poll, or polls missing who was surveyed.
All 13 polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | September 28, 2026 – September 30, 2026 | 758 likely voters | 47.2% | 47.8% | R+0.6 |
| co/efficient | September 14, 2026 – September 17, 2026 | 799 likely voters | 46% | 49% | R+3.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP | September 8, 2026 – September 11, 2026 | 800 likely voters | 53% | 47% | D+6.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | August 20, 2026 – August 23, 2026 | 1,495 likely voters | 50.6% | 49.4% | D+1.2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | August 2, 2026 – August 5, 2026 | 1,371 likely voters | 50.8% | 49.2% | D+1.6 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 15, 2026 – June 29, 2026 | 593 likely voters | 45% | 47% | R+2.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | June 4, 2026 – June 7, 2026 | 1,393 likely voters | 49.4% | 44.2% | D+5.2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 14, 2026 – May 17, 2026 | 1,401 likely voters | 48.4% | 43.8% | D+4.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | April 16, 2026 – April 19, 2026 | — likely voters | 50.8% | 47.3% | D+3.5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | March 19, 2026 – March 22, 2026 | 1,283 likely voters | 52.4% | 47.6% | D+4.8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | January 8, 2026 – January 11, 2026 | 1,681 likely voters | 48% | 46.4% | D+1.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | July 29, 2025 – August 1, 2025 | 1,613 likely voters | 42.5% | 46.7% | R+4.2 |
| Data for Progress | July 21, 2025 – July 27, 2025 | 678 likely voters | 45% | 46% | R+1.0 |
PrivateVoteHub Polls from the VoteHub Polling API, retrieved October 7, 2026, used under CC BY 4.0. How polls are chosen
Economic profile of the state this seat represents
FederalCensus Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 (5-year) · survey period 2020-2024 · State of Alaska
- Median household income$92,788± $1,232
- Poverty rate10.1%± 0.4 ppPopulation for whom poverty status is determined
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)44.6%± 1.5 ppRenter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed
- Homeownership rate66.8%± 0.7 ppOccupied housing units
- Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)31.7%± 0.6 ppPopulation 25 years and over
Technical definitions (ACS tables)
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)
- Renter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed: B25070_001 minus B25070_011 (Not computed)
This seat's geography is exactly coterminous with its state (or the District), so the state estimates from the same edition apply directly.
Structural five-year survey conditions — not current monthly conditions. Uncertainties are 90% margins of error: the published ACS margin for median income; Census-formula approximations (ACS handbook ch. 8) for the rates. “Margin unavailable” means the source supplies no usable margin — never zero.
Campaign finances
2025-2026 two-year period (FEC cycle 2026). Committee totals are the FEC’s own candidate-level aggregation — never summed from committee rows here. Independent spending is reported separately and is never part of a candidate’s receipts. An FEC registration is not proof of ballot qualification; candidacy status comes verbatim from the accepted release.
General election · November 3, 2026
“No matching FEC candidate record” means no filing was located — it is never evidence that a candidacy does not exist, and never a ballot-status claim. Candidates’ coverage dates can differ; each row carries its own.
Current officeholder — Congress.gov context
Dan Sullivan · Republican · Alaska · served in 6 Congresses since 2015
Identity verified against the official Congress.gov member record (Bioguide S001198), recorded through 2026-10-04T02:54:23Z. Current officeholding is separate from 2026 candidacy status. Official member website.
Recent housing, employment, energy and infrastructure legislation
From the member's sponsored then cosponsored legislation lists (newest first, limit 30 each), the newest items whose CONFIRMED official legislative subjects intersect {Housing and Community Development, Labor and Employment, Energy, Transportation and Public Works, Water Resources Development} are selected, at most 3 sponsored and 2 cosponsored, 5 total. Items whose relevance cannot be confirmed via the official /subjects endpoint are omitted.
- S.5438-119 — Alaska’s Right to Produce Act 2.0sponsor latest action 2026-09-22: Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 678. · subjects: Energy
- S.5048-119 — Hydropower Licensing Affordability Actcosponsor latest action 2026-09-16: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Hearings held. · subjects: Energy
- S.5069-119 — Coast Guard Leadership Modernization Actcosponsor latest action 2026-07-22: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. · subjects: Transportation and Public Works
Sponsorship is a record of introduction or support — not passage, effectiveness, or economic impact.
Counties and this district
County boundaries for this seat are not published in this release. Explore individual counties on the county map.