Providence Strategy

Florida · U.S. Senate

FL Class 3 Senate seat (2026 special — unexpired term ending 2029-01-03)

U.S. Senate · FL · Class 3 · Data as of 2026-09-28 · Release rel_2026_10_01_national_v2

Coverage: this seat is included in the 2026 national listing.

Candidate source

Candidate source: Florida Division of Elections (dos.fl.gov / dos.elections.myflorida.com) Candidate Tracking System — Candidate Listing for 2026 General Election (US Senator; US Representative by district) (retrieved 2026-09-28). Absence of a candidate row is never evidence that a race has no candidates.

How the candidate list was checked

Rows read from the official source: 283 · published here: 270 · left out by rule: 0 · held back for review: 0. FL Division of Elections Candidate Tracking System (CTS) is the official qualifying record for federal candidates. All 28 House districts and the US Senate contest present. US Senate = SPECIAL general for the unexpired portion of the Class 3 term (Moody appointed Jan 2025 after Rubio's resignation); neither FL class is up regularly in 2026 (Class 1 next regular 2030, Class 3 next regular 2028) and the Secretary of State's Notices of General Election list 'United States Senator' for Nov 3 2026 in all sampled counties - designation=special, senate_class=3 recorded per brief and corroborated by dos.fl.gov notice PDFs. FL-20: brief said seat vacant (Cherfilus-McCormick resigned 2026-04-21, special date TBD, zero FL-20 rows expected) - SOURCE CONTRADICTS: CTS 20261103-GEN shows a full FL-20 slate including Cherfilus-McCormick Defeated/Eliminated in a completed primary; Broward notice lists 'Representative in Congress: Districts 20, 22, 24, 25, 26'. FL-20 special general therefore coincides with Nov 3 2026; FL-20 rows emitted with designation=special (3 general-ballot candidates: Wasserman Schultz DEM, Andersen REP, Maxime IND). Palm Beach notice edition retrieved does NOT list D20 (lists 21,22,23,25) while Broward does - edition discrepancy noted, CTS treated as authoritative. No separate federal-special election id exists in CTS (only 20261103-S01 state SD21; 20260324 state HD51/HD52/SD14+87), so federal specials are merged into elecid 20261103-GEN. Status mapping (verbatim CTS Status -> dataset status): Qualified/Unopposed -> qualified_for_general; Defeated (Primary=Eliminated) -> qualified_for_primary; Withdrew -> withdrawn; Did Not Qualify -> disqualified. Rows emitted: 283 (14 USS + 269 USR) with 83 general-ballot (qualified_for_general: 86); 107 primary-defeated, 33 withdrawn, 57 did-not-qualify rows retained for completeness (batch-D HI precedent). D10 Frost (DEM) Unopposed primary+general per source. Party codes as printed (REP/DEM/NPA/IND/WRI); '*Incumbent' markers preserved in source_row. Authority logic: CTS StatusCode=ALL includes withdrawn and did-not-qualify rows; this is the Division's complete qualifying ledger, not a certified-ballot printout - certified ballot composition derives from the same qualifying record plus Secretary of State notices; status_basis=state_certified_list (Division of Elections official qualifying record). FL-20 (13 rows) QUARANTINED on source conflict (Clerk date-TBD + notice omission vs CTS slate); the FL-20 VACANCY itself remains published on the seat (cross-checked Clerk+MemberData). Senate rows carry class 3 / designation special (special general, unexpired Class 3 term).

Boundaries and sources

County–district classifications come from official block-assignment files, cross-checked against Census representations; render geometry is display-only.

Current officeholder

The current officeholder has not been confirmed in this edition. This does not establish that the seat is vacant.

Upcoming contests

2026-11-03 — general (special)

General election · special election · 2026-11-03 · fills unexpired term ending 2029-01-03

  • Bettis, Shawn Stefan · DEM

    Disqualified

  • Gillespie, Neil J. · NPA

    Qualified for the general-election ballot

  • Gleason, Chris · REP

    Qualified for the primary ballot

  • Gould, Alex · DEM

    Disqualified

  • Hamilton, Michaelangelo Collins · REP

    Disqualified

  • Lyles, Tamika · DEM

    Withdrew

  • Moody, Ashley · REP

    Qualified for the general-election ballot

  • Mujica, Hector Daniel · DEM

    Withdrew

  • Nixon, Angie · DEM

    Qualified for the general-election ballot

  • Perry, Neelam Taneja · REP

    Qualified for the primary ballot

  • Rivera, Ernest "Ernie" · REP

    Qualified for the primary ballot

  • Toulme, Alix Christopher · WRI

    Disqualified

  • Vindman, Alex · DEM

    Qualified for the primary ballot

  • Weil, Joshua Joseph · DEM

    Disqualified

Polling

R+5.5 — Angie Nixon (Democrat) against Ashley Moody (Republican), averaging each pollster’s latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026: 6 polls from 5 pollsters.

Polls over time: Angie Nixon against Ashley Moody10 polls since March 2, 2026. The average of each pollster's latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026 is R+5.5.R+15R+10R+5TieD+5D+10D+15JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovUniversity of North Florida, ended March 2, 2026: Angie Nixon 38%, Ashley Moody 46% (R+8.0)Emerson College, ended March 31, 2026: Angie Nixon 36%, Ashley Moody 47% (R+11.0)Stetson University, ended April 13, 2026: Angie Nixon 38%, Ashley Moody 51% (R+13.0)University of North Florida, ended July 17, 2026: Angie Nixon 42%, Ashley Moody 50% (R+8.0)Change Research, ended September 9, 2026: Angie Nixon 47%, Ashley Moody 47% (D+0.0)Quantus Insights, ended September 10, 2026: Angie Nixon 42.7%, Ashley Moody 50.1% (R+7.4)St. Pete Polls, ended September 17, 2026: Angie Nixon 44.8%, Ashley Moody 45.2% (R+0.4)InsiderAdvantage, ended September 21, 2026: Angie Nixon 41.8%, Ashley Moody 49.3% (R+7.5)Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research, ended September 21, 2026: Angie Nixon 40%, Ashley Moody 51% (R+11.0)Change Research, ended September 27, 2026: Angie Nixon 47%, Ashley Moody 48% (R+1.0)
Angie Nixon ahead Ashley Moody ahead 30-day average within 5 points data date (October 7, 2026) election day (November 3, 2026)
Polls over time: Angie Nixon against Ashley Moody10 polls since March 2, 2026. The average of each pollster's latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026 is R+5.5.R+15R+10R+5TieD+5D+10D+15JanMarMayJulSepNovUniversity of North Florida, ended March 2, 2026: Angie Nixon 38%, Ashley Moody 46% (R+8.0)Emerson College, ended March 31, 2026: Angie Nixon 36%, Ashley Moody 47% (R+11.0)Stetson University, ended April 13, 2026: Angie Nixon 38%, Ashley Moody 51% (R+13.0)University of North Florida, ended July 17, 2026: Angie Nixon 42%, Ashley Moody 50% (R+8.0)Change Research, ended September 9, 2026: Angie Nixon 47%, Ashley Moody 47% (D+0.0)Quantus Insights, ended September 10, 2026: Angie Nixon 42.7%, Ashley Moody 50.1% (R+7.4)St. Pete Polls, ended September 17, 2026: Angie Nixon 44.8%, Ashley Moody 45.2% (R+0.4)InsiderAdvantage, ended September 21, 2026: Angie Nixon 41.8%, Ashley Moody 49.3% (R+7.5)Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research, ended September 21, 2026: Angie Nixon 40%, Ashley Moody 51% (R+11.0)Change Research, ended September 27, 2026: Angie Nixon 47%, Ashley Moody 48% (R+1.0)
Angie Nixon ahead Ashley Moody ahead 30-day average within 5 points data date (October 7, 2026) election day (November 3, 2026)

A poll average describes what recent surveys found. Each poll has its own sampling error, larger for smaller samples. The average is not a forecast and not a probability. Matchup: named in the 3 most recent polls. 12 polls in the source were left out: party-sponsored or internal polls, other matchups, duplicate versions of the same poll, or polls missing who was surveyed.

All 10 polls
PollsterFieldworkSampleAngie NixonAshley MoodyMargin
Change Research for Freedom Project USASeptember 25, 2026 – September 27, 20261,063 likely voters47%48%R+1.0
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchSeptember 14, 2026 – September 21, 2026830 likely voters40%51%R+11.0
InsiderAdvantageSeptember 20, 2026 – September 21, 2026600 likely voters41.8%49.3%R+7.5
St. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsSeptember 15, 2026 – September 17, 2026913 likely voters44.8%45.2%R+0.4
Quantus InsightsSeptember 8, 2026 – September 10, 2026733 likely voters42.7%50.1%R+7.4
Change Research for Freedom Project USASeptember 7, 2026 – September 9, 20261,107 likely voters47%47%D+0.0
University of North FloridaJuly 8, 2026 – July 17, 2026848 likely voters42%50%R+8.0
Stetson UniversityMarch 25, 2026 – April 13, 2026848 likely voters38%51%R+13.0
Emerson CollegeMarch 29, 2026 – March 31, 20261,125 likely voters36%47%R+11.0
University of North FloridaFebruary 21, 2026 – March 2, 2026768 likely voters38%46%R+8.0

PrivateVoteHub Polls from the VoteHub Polling API, retrieved October 7, 2026, used under CC BY 4.0. How polls are chosen

Economic profile of the state this seat represents

FederalCensus Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 (5-year) · survey period 2020-2024 · State of Florida

  • Median household income$74,568± $284
  • Poverty rate12.6%± 0.1 ppPopulation for whom poverty status is determined
  • Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)60.1%± 0.2 ppRenter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed
  • Homeownership rate67.6%± 0.3 ppOccupied housing units
  • Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)34.1%± 0.2 ppPopulation 25 years and over
Technical definitions (ACS tables)
Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)
Renter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed: B25070_001 minus B25070_011 (Not computed)

This seat's geography is exactly coterminous with its state (or the District), so the state estimates from the same edition apply directly.

Structural five-year survey conditions — not current monthly conditions. Uncertainties are 90% margins of error: the published ACS margin for median income; Census-formula approximations (ACS handbook ch. 8) for the rates. “Margin unavailable” means the source supplies no usable margin — never zero.

Campaign finances

2025-2026 two-year period (FEC cycle 2026). Committee totals are the FEC’s own candidate-level aggregation — never summed from committee rows here. Independent spending is reported separately and is never part of a candidate’s receipts. An FEC registration is not proof of ballot qualification; candidacy status comes verbatim from the accepted release.

General election · November 3, 2026

CandidateReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebtCoverage endInd. spending for / against
Bettis, Shawn StefanDEM — no matching FEC candidate record——————
Gillespie, Neil J.NPA — no matching FEC candidate record——————
Gleason, ChrisREP — ambiguous identity — name evidence insufficient——————
Gould, AlexDEM — ambiguous identity — multiple FEC candidates match——————
Hamilton, Michaelangelo CollinsREP — matched, no report filed for this period————No report for this periodnone reported
Lyles, TamikaDEM$23,287$23,287$0$853March 31, 2026none reported
Moody, AshleyREP$11,270,805$2,779,629$8,491,175$0July 29, 2026$596,527 / $36,025
Mujica, Hector DanielDEM$856,667$845,911$10,756$173,185June 30, 2026none reported
Nixon, AngieDEM — ambiguous identity — name evidence insufficient——————
Perry, Neelam TanejaREP — ambiguous identity — multiple FEC candidates match——————
Rivera, Ernest "Ernie"REP$15,973$15,003$970$18,690July 29, 2026none reported
Toulme, Alix ChristopherWRI — ambiguous identity — multiple FEC candidates match——————
Vindman, AlexDEM — ambiguous identity — name evidence insufficient——————
Weil, Joshua JosephDEM — ambiguous identity — multiple FEC candidates match——————

“No matching FEC candidate record” means no filing was located — it is never evidence that a candidacy does not exist, and never a ballot-status claim. Candidates’ coverage dates can differ; each row carries its own.

Current officeholder — Congress.gov context

Congress.gov member context: not available for this seat’s current officeholder (no_authoritative_officeholder_record). The officeholder record above is unchanged.

Counties and this district

County boundaries for this seat are not published in this release. Explore individual counties on the county map.

Open the county map