Iowa · U.S. Senate
IA Class 2 Senate seat
Coverage: this seat is included in the 2026 national listing.
Candidate source
Candidate source: Iowa Secretary of State — IA SOS Cloudflare challenge page (retrieved 2026-09-28). Absence of a candidate row is never evidence that a race has no candidates.
How the candidate list was checked
Rows read from the official source: 0 · published here: 0 · left out by rule: 0 · held back for review: 0. sos.iowa.gov serves a Cloudflare 'Just a moment...' challenge (HTTP 403) to non-JS clients on election pages and PDF paths; elections.sos.iowa.gov connection also challenged. Candidate pages unreachable via curl.
Hot Races · statewide: Tightly polled: the current poll average is D+4.7, within 5 points. Neither is a forecast of this race. How the list works
Boundaries and sources
County–district classifications come from official block-assignment files, cross-checked against Census representations; render geometry is display-only.
Current officeholder
The current officeholder has not been confirmed in this edition. This does not establish that the seat is vacant.
Polling
D+4.7 — Josh Turek (Democrat) against Ashley Hinson (Republican), averaging each pollster’s latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026: 3 polls from 3 pollsters. Within 5 points: this race is on the Hot Races list as tightly polled.
A poll average describes what recent surveys found. Each poll has its own sampling error, larger for smaller samples. The average is not a forecast and not a probability. Matchup: named in the 3 most recent polls. 8 polls in the source were left out: party-sponsored or internal polls, other matchups, duplicate versions of the same poll, or polls missing who was surveyed.
All 10 polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | September 24, 2026 – September 28, 2026 | 1,008 likely voters | 49% | 47% | D+2.0 |
| Marist University | September 17, 2026 – September 20, 2026 | 1,050 registered voters | 50% | 42% | D+8.0 |
| YouGov | September 3, 2026 – September 8, 2026 | 2,041 likely voters | 47% | 43% | D+4.0 |
| Emerson College for Nexstar Media | August 31, 2026 – September 1, 2026 | 750 likely voters | 45% | 50% | R+5.0 |
| Suffolk University | August 20, 2026 – August 23, 2026 | 500 likely voters | 40.8% | 45.4% | R+4.6 |
| Emerson College for Nexstar Media | August 2, 2026 – August 4, 2026 | 712 likely voters | 45% | 48% | R+3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 15, 2026 – June 27, 2026 | 600 likely voters | 46% | 48% | R+2.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | June 23, 2026 – June 27, 2026 | 1,003 registered voters | 50% | 46% | D+4.0 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | April 3, 2026 – April 9, 2026 | 377 likely voters | 46% | 45% | D+1.0 |
| Change Research | January 8, 2026 – January 11, 2026 | 1,108 likely voters | 41% | 44% | R+3.0 |
PrivateVoteHub Polls from the VoteHub Polling API, retrieved October 7, 2026, used under CC BY 4.0. How polls are chosen
Economic profile of the state this seat represents
FederalCensus Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 (5-year) · survey period 2020-2024 · State of Iowa
- Median household income$75,059± $418
- Poverty rate11.1%± 0.2 ppPopulation for whom poverty status is determined
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)43.9%± 0.8 ppRenter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed
- Homeownership rate71.7%± 0.3 ppOccupied housing units
- Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)31.4%± 0.3 ppPopulation 25 years and over
Technical definitions (ACS tables)
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)
- Renter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed: B25070_001 minus B25070_011 (Not computed)
This seat's geography is exactly coterminous with its state (or the District), so the state estimates from the same edition apply directly.
Structural five-year survey conditions — not current monthly conditions. Uncertainties are 90% margins of error: the published ACS margin for median income; Census-formula approximations (ACS handbook ch. 8) for the rates. “Margin unavailable” means the source supplies no usable margin — never zero.
Campaign finances
No contest in this release carries campaign-finance context.
Current officeholder — Congress.gov context
Joni Ernst · Republican · Iowa · served in 6 Congresses since 2015
Identity verified against the official Congress.gov member record (Bioguide E000295), recorded through 2026-10-04T02:54:23Z. Current officeholding is separate from 2026 candidacy status. Official member website.
Recent housing, employment, energy and infrastructure legislation
From the member's sponsored then cosponsored legislation lists (newest first, limit 30 each), the newest items whose CONFIRMED official legislative subjects intersect {Housing and Community Development, Labor and Employment, Energy, Transportation and Public Works, Water Resources Development} are selected, at most 3 sponsored and 2 cosponsored, 5 total. Items whose relevance cannot be confirmed via the official /subjects endpoint are omitted.
- S.5294-119 — Keeping China Off the Rails Act of 2026sponsor latest action 2026-08-06: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. · subjects: Transportation and Public Works
- S.4892-119 — SMART Energy Efficiency Standards Actsponsor latest action 2026-06-24: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. · subjects: Energy
- S.5028-119 — Ratepayer Protection Actcosponsor latest action 2026-07-16: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. · subjects: Energy
- SRES.747-119 — A resolution expressing support for the designation of May 2026 as "Renewable Fuels Month" to recognize the important role that renewable fuels play in lowering fuel prices for consumers, lessening reliance on foreign adversaries, supporting rural communities, and reducing carbon impacts.cosponsor latest action 2026-05-21: Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment and with a preamble by Voice Vote. (consideration: CR S2435; text: CR S2445) · subjects: Energy
Sponsorship is a record of introduction or support — not passage, effectiveness, or economic impact.
Counties and this district
County boundaries for this seat are not published in this release. Explore individual counties on the county map.