Providence Strategy

Michigan · U.S. Senate

MI Class 2 Senate seat

U.S. Senate · MI · Class 2 · Data as of 2026-09-28 · Release rel_2026_10_01_national_v2

Coverage: this seat is included in the 2026 national listing.

Candidate sources — 7 documents

Absence of a candidate row is never evidence that a race has no candidates.

How the candidate list was checked

Rows read from the official source: · published here: 62 · left out by rule: 18 · held back for review: . 65 federal candidate rows observed across six county sources (Kent, Oakland, Macomb, Lenawee, Wayne, Genesee, Berrien); 18 duplicate observations (Senate slate printed identically in Kent/Oakland/Macomb; D9/D10 in both Macomb and Oakland) collapsed to unique candidacies; the round-4 additions re-print the Senate slate and, where overlapping, the D6/D7/D12/D5 slates already on file - all matching exactly. Districts with candidate rows: 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13 (12 of 13). COMPLETENESS AND CERTIFICATION ARE NOT UNIFORM across those districts: all three round-4 sources are COUNTY-clerk publications, so none carries state_certified_list - D13 rests on the Wayne County Clerk OFFICIAL candidate list (county_official_list), while D04 (Berrien) and D08 (Genesee) rest on rosters the clerks themselves label UNOFFICIAL (county_unofficial_list); candidates-found is supported for all three, a certified complete roster is NOT established for any of them until a state-level certification source confirms them; no cross-source duplicates among the additions. Missing district: MI-01 - Grand Traverse 'General Election 2026 Candidates' PDF (DocumentCenter/View/25783) lists LOCAL candidates only; Marquette/Chippewa/Delta clerk pages carry no 2026 general candidate list; Emmet/Alpena carry filing forms and archived results only; the 2026-09-29 round additionally swept the homepages of Leelanau, Charlevoix, Benzie, Manistee, Wexford, Otsego, Cheboygan, and Houghton counties (all HTTP 200) and found no candidate-list links at that level. Michigan SOS publishes no consolidated roster (MERTS+/MiTN sign-on gated); Wayback was intermittently offline throughout the round.

Hot Races · statewide: the 2024 presidential result in this state was R+1.4, #1 closest of 41 statewide 2026 contests. Tightly polled: the current poll average is D+3.6, within 5 points. Neither is a forecast of this race. How the list works

Boundaries and sources

County–district classifications come from official block-assignment files, cross-checked against Census representations; render geometry is display-only.

Current officeholder

The current officeholder has not been confirmed in this edition. This does not establish that the seat is vacant.

Upcoming contests

2026-11-03 — general

General election · 2026-11-03 · fills 120th Congress 2027-01-03..2033-01-03

Polling

D+3.6 — Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) against Mike Rogers (Republican), averaging each pollster’s latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026: 8 polls from 8 pollsters. Within 5 points: this race is on the Hot Races list as tightly polled.

Polls over time: Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers24 polls since May 8, 2025. The average of each pollster's latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026 is D+3.6.R+15R+10R+5TieD+5D+10D+15MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovGlengariff Group, Inc., ended May 8, 2025: Abdul El-Sayed 41%, Mike Rogers 47% (R+6.0)Rosetta Stone, ended October 25, 2025: Abdul El-Sayed 31%, Mike Rogers 45% (R+14.0)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended November 21, 2025: Abdul El-Sayed 38%, Mike Rogers 41% (R+3.0)Glengariff Group, Inc., ended January 6, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 42%, Mike Rogers 48% (R+6.0)Emerson College, ended January 25, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 42.5%, Mike Rogers 42.8% (R+0.3)Glengariff Group, Inc., ended May 1, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 40%, Mike Rogers 45% (R+5.0)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended May 7, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 42%, Mike Rogers 41% (D+1.0)Quantus Insights, ended June 30, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 45.2%, Mike Rogers 44.1% (D+1.1)Glengariff Group, Inc., ended July 24, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 38.7%, Mike Rogers 49% (R+10.3)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended July 29, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 45%, Mike Rogers 45% (D+0.0)EPIC-MRA, ended July 31, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 43%, Mike Rogers 46% (R+3.0)Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, ended August 10, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 47%, Mike Rogers 51% (R+4.0)Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research, ended August 11, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 48%, Mike Rogers 47% (D+1.0)Susquehanna Polling & Research, ended August 17, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 46%, Mike Rogers 39% (D+7.0)Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov, ended August 20, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 50%, Mike Rogers 45% (D+5.0)EPIC-MRA, ended August 28, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 47%, Mike Rogers 43% (D+4.0)Emerson College, ended September 14, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 48.2%, Mike Rogers 45.7% (D+2.5)The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government, ended September 14, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 48%, Mike Rogers 45% (D+3.0)Suffolk University, ended September 20, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 47%, Mike Rogers 40% (D+7.0)Cygnal/Beacon Research, ended September 21, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 45%, Mike Rogers 40% (D+5.0)The New York Times/Siena University, ended September 22, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 49%, Mike Rogers 44% (D+5.0)co/efficient, ended September 23, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 50%, Mike Rogers 50% (D+0.0)Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, ended September 28, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 50%, Mike Rogers 49% (D+1.0)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended October 1, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 46%, Mike Rogers 41% (D+5.0)
Abdul El-Sayed ahead Mike Rogers ahead 30-day average within 5 points data date (October 7, 2026) election day (November 3, 2026)
Polls over time: Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers24 polls since May 8, 2025. The average of each pollster's latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026 is D+3.6.R+15R+10R+5TieD+5D+10D+15MayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovGlengariff Group, Inc., ended May 8, 2025: Abdul El-Sayed 41%, Mike Rogers 47% (R+6.0)Rosetta Stone, ended October 25, 2025: Abdul El-Sayed 31%, Mike Rogers 45% (R+14.0)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended November 21, 2025: Abdul El-Sayed 38%, Mike Rogers 41% (R+3.0)Glengariff Group, Inc., ended January 6, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 42%, Mike Rogers 48% (R+6.0)Emerson College, ended January 25, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 42.5%, Mike Rogers 42.8% (R+0.3)Glengariff Group, Inc., ended May 1, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 40%, Mike Rogers 45% (R+5.0)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended May 7, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 42%, Mike Rogers 41% (D+1.0)Quantus Insights, ended June 30, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 45.2%, Mike Rogers 44.1% (D+1.1)Glengariff Group, Inc., ended July 24, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 38.7%, Mike Rogers 49% (R+10.3)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended July 29, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 45%, Mike Rogers 45% (D+0.0)EPIC-MRA, ended July 31, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 43%, Mike Rogers 46% (R+3.0)Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, ended August 10, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 47%, Mike Rogers 51% (R+4.0)Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research, ended August 11, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 48%, Mike Rogers 47% (D+1.0)Susquehanna Polling & Research, ended August 17, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 46%, Mike Rogers 39% (D+7.0)Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov, ended August 20, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 50%, Mike Rogers 45% (D+5.0)EPIC-MRA, ended August 28, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 47%, Mike Rogers 43% (D+4.0)Emerson College, ended September 14, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 48.2%, Mike Rogers 45.7% (D+2.5)The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government, ended September 14, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 48%, Mike Rogers 45% (D+3.0)Suffolk University, ended September 20, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 47%, Mike Rogers 40% (D+7.0)Cygnal/Beacon Research, ended September 21, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 45%, Mike Rogers 40% (D+5.0)The New York Times/Siena University, ended September 22, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 49%, Mike Rogers 44% (D+5.0)co/efficient, ended September 23, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 50%, Mike Rogers 50% (D+0.0)Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, ended September 28, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 50%, Mike Rogers 49% (D+1.0)Mitchell Research & Communications, ended October 1, 2026: Abdul El-Sayed 46%, Mike Rogers 41% (D+5.0)
Abdul El-Sayed ahead Mike Rogers ahead 30-day average within 5 points data date (October 7, 2026) election day (November 3, 2026)

A poll average describes what recent surveys found. Each poll has its own sampling error, larger for smaller samples. The average is not a forecast and not a probability. Matchup: certified candidate list. 41 polls in the source were left out: party-sponsored or internal polls, other matchups, duplicate versions of the same poll, or polls missing who was surveyed.

All 24 polls
PollsterFieldworkSampleAbdul El-SayedMike RogersMargin
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsOctober 1, 2026 – October 1, 2026682 likely voters46%41%D+5.0
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSeptember 24, 2026 – September 28, 20261,028 likely voters50%49%D+1.0
co/efficientSeptember 21, 2026 – September 23, 2026843 likely voters50%50%D+0.0
The New York Times/Siena UniversitySeptember 15, 2026 – September 22, 2026605 likely voters49%44%D+5.0
Cygnal/Beacon Research for Michigan EnjoyerSeptember 18, 2026 – September 21, 2026600 likely voters45%40%D+5.0
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 16, 2026 – September 20, 2026500 likely voters47%40%D+7.0
The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and GovernmentSeptember 10, 2026 – September 14, 2026803 likely voters48%45%D+3.0
Emerson College for Nexstar MediaSeptember 12, 2026 – September 14, 20261,000 likely voters48.2%45.7%D+2.5
EPIC-MRAAugust 22, 2026 – August 28, 2026600 likely voters47%43%D+4.0
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovAugust 10, 2026 – August 20, 2026779 likely voters50%45%D+5.0
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchAugust 11, 2026 – August 17, 2026800 registered voters46%39%D+7.0
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARPAugust 9, 2026 – August 11, 2026877 likely voters48%47%D+1.0
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsAugust 6, 2026 – August 10, 20261,006 registered voters47%51%R+4.0
EPIC-MRA for MIRSJuly 24, 2026 – July 31, 2026600 likely voters43%46%R+3.0
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJuly 28, 2026 – July 29, 2026672 likely voters45%45%D+0.0
Glengariff Group, Inc. for Michigan Education Association, Business Leaders For MichiganJuly 22, 2026 – July 24, 2026600 likely voters38.7%49%R+10.3
Quantus InsightsJune 29, 2026 – June 30, 2026947 likely voters45.2%44.1%D+1.1
Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRSMay 1, 2026 – May 7, 2026607 likely voters42%41%D+1.0
Glengariff Group, Inc. for Detroit Regional ChamberApril 28, 2026 – May 1, 2026600 likely voters40%45%R+5.0
Emerson College for NexstarJanuary 24, 2026 – January 25, 20261,000 likely voters42.5%42.8%R+0.3
Glengariff Group, Inc. for Detroit News, WDIV-TVJanuary 2, 2026 – January 6, 2026600 likely voters42%48%R+6.0
Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News ServiceNovember 18, 2025 – November 21, 2025616 likely voters38%41%R+3.0
Rosetta StoneOctober 23, 2025 – October 25, 2025637 likely voters31%45%R+14.0
Glengariff Group, Inc. for Detroit Regional ChamberMay 5, 2025 – May 8, 2025600 registered voters41%47%R+6.0

PrivateVoteHub Polls from the VoteHub Polling API, retrieved October 7, 2026, used under CC BY 4.0. How polls are chosen

Economic profile of the state this seat represents

FederalCensus Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 (5-year) · survey period 2020-2024 · State of Michigan

  • Median household income$72,875± $293
  • Poverty rate13.2%± 0.2 ppPopulation for whom poverty status is determined
  • Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)50.4%± 0.4 ppRenter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed
  • Homeownership rate73.2%± 0.3 ppOccupied housing units
  • Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)32.4%± 0.2 ppPopulation 25 years and over
Technical definitions (ACS tables)
Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)
Renter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed: B25070_001 minus B25070_011 (Not computed)

This seat's geography is exactly coterminous with its state (or the District), so the state estimates from the same edition apply directly.

Structural five-year survey conditions — not current monthly conditions. Uncertainties are 90% margins of error: the published ACS margin for median income; Census-formula approximations (ACS handbook ch. 8) for the rates. “Margin unavailable” means the source supplies no usable margin — never zero.

Campaign finances

2025-2026 two-year period (FEC cycle 2026). Committee totals are the FEC’s own candidate-level aggregation — never summed from committee rows here. Independent spending is reported separately and is never part of a candidate’s receipts. An FEC registration is not proof of ballot qualification; candidacy status comes verbatim from the accepted release.

General election · November 3, 2026

CandidateReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebtCoverage endInd. spending for / against
Abdul El-SayedDEM$14,514,336$11,961,573$2,552,763$0July 15, 2026$2,384,843 / $20,590,775
Douglas P. MarshGRN — matched, no report filed for this period————No report for this periodnone reported
Lydia ChristensenLIB — matched, no report filed for this period————No report for this periodnone reported
Mike RogersREP — ambiguous identity — name evidence insufficient——————
Tim LongUST — ambiguous identity — name evidence insufficient——————
Walter P. KristyNLP — matched, no report filed for this period————No report for this periodnone reported

“No matching FEC candidate record” means no filing was located — it is never evidence that a candidacy does not exist, and never a ballot-status claim. Candidates’ coverage dates can differ; each row carries its own.

Current officeholder — Congress.gov context

Gary C. Peters · Democratic · Michigan · served in 9 Congresses since 2009

Identity verified against the official Congress.gov member record (Bioguide P000595), recorded through 2026-10-04T02:54:23Z. Current officeholding is separate from 2026 candidacy status. Official member website.

Recent housing, employment, energy and infrastructure legislation

From the member's sponsored then cosponsored legislation lists (newest first, limit 30 each), the newest items whose CONFIRMED official legislative subjects intersect {Housing and Community Development, Labor and Employment, Energy, Transportation and Public Works, Water Resources Development} are selected, at most 3 sponsored and 2 cosponsored, 5 total. Items whose relevance cannot be confirmed via the official /subjects endpoint are omitted.

  • SRES.820-119 — A resolution designating August 7, 2026, as "National Lighthouse Day".sponsor latest action 2026-08-07: Resolution agreed to in Senate without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (consideration: CR S4553) · subjects: Transportation and Public Works
  • S.4919-119 — Wage Theft Prevention and Wage Recovery Actcosponsor latest action 2026-06-24: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions. · subjects: Labor and Employment
  • S.5407-119 — Visionary Intersections Modernization Actcosponsor latest action 2026-09-16: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Environment and Public Works. · subjects: Transportation and Public Works

Sponsorship is a record of introduction or support — not passage, effectiveness, or economic impact.

Counties and this district

County boundaries for this seat are not published in this release. Explore individual counties on the county map.

Open the county map