Minnesota · U.S. Senate
MN Class 2 Senate seat
Coverage: this seat is included in the 2026 national listing.
Candidate source
Candidate source: Minnesota Secretary of State — MN SOS candidates (captcha) (retrieved 2026-09-28). Absence of a candidate row is never evidence that a race has no candidates.
How the candidate list was checked
Rows read from the official source: 0 · published here: 0 · left out by rule: 0 · held back for review: 0. sos.mn.gov and sos.state.mn.us both return HTTP 200 but with a Radware ShieldSquare bot-challenge page (no content). Also verified: 2026 MN general includes Senate Class II per federal cycle; unverified against state source due to block.
Hot Races · statewide: the 2024 presidential result in this state was D+4.3, #5 closest of 41 statewide 2026 contests. Tightly polled: the current poll average is D+1.9, within 5 points. Neither is a forecast of this race. How the list works
Boundaries and sources
County–district classifications come from official block-assignment files, cross-checked against Census representations; render geometry is display-only.
Current officeholder
The current officeholder has not been confirmed in this edition. This does not establish that the seat is vacant.
Polling
D+1.9 — Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) against Michele Tafoya (Republican), averaging each pollster’s latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026: 3 polls from 3 pollsters. Within 5 points: this race is on the Hot Races list as tightly polled.
A poll average describes what recent surveys found. Each poll has its own sampling error, larger for smaller samples. The average is not a forecast and not a probability. Matchup: named in the 3 most recent polls. 3 polls in the source were left out: party-sponsored or internal polls, other matchups, duplicate versions of the same poll, or polls missing who was surveyed.
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project | September 29, 2026 – September 30, 2026 | 622 likely voters | 46% | 44% | D+2.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth) | September 9, 2026 – September 14, 2026 | 654 likely voters | 42% | 42% | D+0.0 |
| Quantus Insights | September 8, 2026 – September 10, 2026 | 720 likely voters | 48.2% | 44.4% | D+3.8 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth) | August 13, 2026 – August 17, 2026 | 661 likely voters | 46% | 41% | D+5.0 |
| Emerson College | February 6, 2026 – February 8, 2026 | 1,000 likely voters | 47.1% | 40.6% | D+6.5 |
PrivateVoteHub Polls from the VoteHub Polling API, retrieved October 7, 2026, used under CC BY 4.0. How polls are chosen
Economic profile of the state this seat represents
FederalCensus Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 (5-year) · survey period 2020-2024 · State of Minnesota
- Median household income$89,062± $409
- Poverty rate9.3%± 0.2 ppPopulation for whom poverty status is determined
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)48.1%± 0.6 ppRenter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed
- Homeownership rate72.2%± 0.3 ppOccupied housing units
- Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)39.4%± 0.2 ppPopulation 25 years and over
Technical definitions (ACS tables)
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)
- Renter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed: B25070_001 minus B25070_011 (Not computed)
This seat's geography is exactly coterminous with its state (or the District), so the state estimates from the same edition apply directly.
Structural five-year survey conditions — not current monthly conditions. Uncertainties are 90% margins of error: the published ACS margin for median income; Census-formula approximations (ACS handbook ch. 8) for the rates. “Margin unavailable” means the source supplies no usable margin — never zero.
Campaign finances
No contest in this release carries campaign-finance context.
Current officeholder — Congress.gov context
Tina Smith · Democratic · Minnesota · served in 5 Congresses since 2018
Identity verified against the official Congress.gov member record (Bioguide S001203), recorded through 2026-10-04T02:54:23Z. Current officeholding is separate from 2026 candidacy status. Official member website.
Recent housing, employment, energy and infrastructure legislation
From the member's sponsored then cosponsored legislation lists (newest first, limit 30 each), the newest items whose CONFIRMED official legislative subjects intersect {Housing and Community Development, Labor and Employment, Energy, Transportation and Public Works, Water Resources Development} are selected, at most 3 sponsored and 2 cosponsored, 5 total. Items whose relevance cannot be confirmed via the official /subjects endpoint are omitted.
- S.4413-119 — Protecting America’s Workers Actcosponsor latest action 2026-04-28: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions. · subjects: Labor and Employment
Sponsorship is a record of introduction or support — not passage, effectiveness, or economic impact.
Counties and this district
County boundaries for this seat are not published in this release. Explore individual counties on the county map.