Montana · U.S. Senate
MT Class 2 Senate seat
Coverage: this seat is included in the 2026 national listing.
Candidate source
Candidate source: Montana Secretary of State — MT voterfile portal page (wrong channel; SOS site WAF-blocked) (retrieved 2026-09-28). Absence of a candidate row is never evidence that a race has no candidates.
How the candidate list was checked
Rows read from the official source: 0 · published here: 0 · left out by rule: 0 · held back for review: 0. sosmt.gov returns HTTP 403 (WAF placeholder page) on /elections/ and /elections/candidates/. app.mt.gov/voterfile is a paid voter-file purchase portal (with reCAPTCHA), not the certified candidate list. MT 2026 general: Senate (Daines Class II) + 2 House districts per federal cycle, unverified against a state source due to block.
Boundaries and sources
County–district classifications come from official block-assignment files, cross-checked against Census representations; render geometry is display-only.
Current officeholder
The current officeholder has not been confirmed in this edition. This does not establish that the seat is vacant.
Polling
Seth Bodnar (independent) against Kurt Alme (Republican). Too few polls in the last 30 days for an average: we need at least 3 polls from 2 pollsters.
A poll average describes what recent surveys found. Each poll has its own sampling error, larger for smaller samples. The average is not a forecast and not a probability. Matchup: named in the 3 most recent polls. 16 polls in the source were left out: party-sponsored or internal polls, other matchups, duplicate versions of the same poll, or polls missing who was surveyed.
All 8 polls
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Seth Bodnar | Kurt Alme | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR-TV | September 19, 2026 – September 24, 2026 | 604 likely voters | 26% | 45% | R+19.0 |
| Quantus Insights | September 14, 2026 – September 15, 2026 | 625 likely voters | 24% | 44% | R+20.0 |
| Hart Research Associates for Forward Montana | August 1, 2026 – August 4, 2026 | 800 likely voters | 30% | 45% | R+15.0 |
| Tavern Research | July 23, 2026 – July 27, 2026 | 517 likely voters | 25% | 49% | R+24.0 |
| GQR for Contours Inc. | July 23, 2026 – July 26, 2026 | 500 likely voters | 27% | 41% | R+14.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center | July 13, 2026 – July 16, 2026 | 793 likely voters | 24% | 36% | R+12.0 |
| Tavern Research | June 16, 2026 – June 19, 2026 | 400 likely voters | 25% | 49% | R+24.0 |
| Tavern Research for Contours Inc. | May 13, 2026 – May 18, 2026 | 607 likely voters | 26% | 46% | R+20.0 |
PrivateVoteHub Polls from the VoteHub Polling API, retrieved October 7, 2026, used under CC BY 4.0. How polls are chosen
Economic profile of the state this seat represents
FederalCensus Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 (5-year) · survey period 2020-2024 · State of Montana
- Median household income$72,509± $761
- Poverty rate11.5%± 0.3 ppPopulation for whom poverty status is determined
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)44.8%± 1.2 ppRenter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed
- Homeownership rate69.2%± 0.6 ppOccupied housing units
- Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)35.2%± 0.4 ppPopulation 25 years and over
Technical definitions (ACS tables)
- Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)
- Renter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed: B25070_001 minus B25070_011 (Not computed)
This seat's geography is exactly coterminous with its state (or the District), so the state estimates from the same edition apply directly.
Structural five-year survey conditions — not current monthly conditions. Uncertainties are 90% margins of error: the published ACS margin for median income; Census-formula approximations (ACS handbook ch. 8) for the rates. “Margin unavailable” means the source supplies no usable margin — never zero.
Campaign finances
No contest in this release carries campaign-finance context.
Current officeholder — Congress.gov context
Steve Daines · Republican · Montana · served in 7 Congresses since 2013
Identity verified against the official Congress.gov member record (Bioguide D000618), recorded through 2026-10-04T02:54:23Z. Current officeholding is separate from 2026 candidacy status. Official member website.
Recent housing, employment, energy and infrastructure legislation
From the member's sponsored then cosponsored legislation lists (newest first, limit 30 each), the newest items whose CONFIRMED official legislative subjects intersect {Housing and Community Development, Labor and Employment, Energy, Transportation and Public Works, Water Resources Development} are selected, at most 3 sponsored and 2 cosponsored, 5 total. Items whose relevance cannot be confirmed via the official /subjects endpoint are omitted.
- S.5048-119 — Hydropower Licensing Affordability Actsponsor latest action 2026-09-16: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Hearings held. · subjects: Energy
- S.4992-119 — A bill to require the Secretary of the Army to issue guidance relating to the review of applications for alteration or temporary or permanent occupation or use of certain hydropower projects, and for other purposes.sponsor latest action 2026-07-15: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Environment and Public Works. · subjects: Water Resources Development
- S.4838-119 — Outdoor Recreational Outfitting and Guiding Actsponsor latest action 2026-06-18: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions. · subjects: Labor and Employment
Sponsorship is a record of introduction or support — not passage, effectiveness, or economic impact.
Counties and this district
County boundaries for this seat are not published in this release. Explore individual counties on the county map.