North Carolina · U.S. Senate

U.S. Senate, NC, Class 2

U.S. Senate · NC · Class 2 · Data as of 2026-09-28 · Release rel_2026_10_01_national_v2

Hot Races · statewide: the 2024 presidential result in this state was R+3.3, #4 closest of 41 statewide 2026 contests. Neither is a forecast of this race. How the list works

Hot Races #2 (North Carolina and Vermont) · structural score 10 — describes how open the contest is, not a forecast of a close result. See it on the map →

Boundaries and sources

County–district classifications come from official block-assignment files, cross-checked against Census representations; render geometry is display-only.

Current officeholder

Thom Tillis · Republican · current term began January 3, 2021

Upcoming contests

2026-11-03 — general

General election · 2026-11-03 · fills Six-year Senate term beginning 2027-01-03 (NC Class 2)

Michael Dublin · GRE
Listed on the official candidate filing list — final certification pending
No verified endorsement found as of 2026-09-28.
Michael Whatley · REP
Listed on the official candidate filing list — final certification pending
Donald J. Trump — issued (2025-07-24) · scope: unspecified
Stage scope unspecified — not claimed for this contest · Verified endorsement — archived original — Post does not specify primary vs general — scope recorded as unspecified; attached to the candidate, shown on both stages.
Endorsement source (1)
Every displayed fact traces to the documents below. Verification status describes how the statement was checked, not how reliable a claim is.
Truth Social (@realDonaldTrump) · Verified · archived original
Original statement — Michael David Whatley endorsement (issued, 2025-07-24)
Retrieved 2026-09-27
Archived copy: https://web.archive.org/web/20260828182910/https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114953962646647794; statement text: “Michael Whatley has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114953962646647794
Roy Cooper · DEM
Listed on the official candidate filing list — final certification pending
Shannon W. Bray · LIB
Listed on the official candidate filing list — final certification pending
No verified endorsement found as of 2026-09-28.

Polling

D+10.2 — Roy Cooper (Democrat) against Michael Whatley (Republican), averaging each pollster’s latest poll in the 30 days to October 7, 2026: 4 polls from 4 pollsters.

Roy Cooper ahead Michael Whatley ahead 30-day average within 5 points data date (October 7, 2026) election day (November 3, 2026)

A poll average describes what recent surveys found. Each poll has its own sampling error, larger for smaller samples. The average is not a forecast and not a probability. Matchup: certified candidate list. 13 polls in the source were left out: party-sponsored or internal polls, other matchups, duplicate versions of the same poll, or polls missing who was surveyed.

All 26 polls

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	Roy Cooper	Michael Whatley	Margin
Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project	September 27, 2026 – September 29, 2026	642 likely voters	51%	39%	D+12.0
InsiderAdvantage	September 16, 2026 – September 17, 2026	1,200 likely voters	48.4%	42.5%	D+5.9
High Point University Survey Research Center	September 9, 2026 – September 16, 2026	706 likely voters	50%	42%	D+8.0
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	September 13, 2026 – September 15, 2026	608 likely voters	49%	34%	D+15.0
East Carolina University	August 31, 2026 – September 3, 2026	675 likely voters	52%	44%	D+8.0
Elon University/YouGov	August 21, 2026 – August 31, 2026	565 likely voters	49%	38%	D+11.0
High Point University Survey Research Center	August 3, 2026 – August 12, 2026	660 likely voters	50%	45%	D+5.0
Harper Polling for The Carolina Journal	August 9, 2026 – August 10, 2026	600 likely voters	51.5%	39%	D+12.5
Change Research for Talking About Politics	July 29, 2026 – August 1, 2026	967 likely voters	50%	41%	D+9.0
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	July 23, 2026 – July 27, 2026	1,005 registered voters	53%	44%	D+9.0
Elon University/YouGov	July 21, 2026 – July 23, 2026	466 likely voters	53%	42%	D+11.0
Public Policy Polling	July 10, 2026 – July 11, 2026	759 likely voters	48%	44%	D+4.0
The New York Times/Siena University	June 15, 2026 – June 27, 2026	601 likely voters	50%	43%	D+7.0
YouGov for Catawba College Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service	June 1, 2026 – June 10, 2026	905 likely voters	48%	34%	D+14.0
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	May 10, 2026 – May 11, 2026	600 likely voters	49.8%	38.7%	D+11.1
High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov	March 26, 2026 – April 6, 2026	703 likely voters	50%	42%	D+8.0
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	March 22, 2026 – March 23, 2026	600 likely voters	48.9%	41.1%	D+7.8
YouGov for Catawba College Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service	March 9, 2026 – March 18, 2026	871 likely voters	48%	34%	D+14.0
Public Policy Polling	March 13, 2026 – March 14, 2026	556 registered voters	47%	44%	D+3.0
Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions for Healthier United Fund	March 8, 2026 – March 9, 2026	800 likely voters	50%	32%	D+18.0
Change Research	January 31, 2026 – February 4, 2026	1,069 registered voters	50%	40%	D+10.0
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	November 9, 2025 – November 10, 2025	600 likely voters	47%	39%	D+8.0
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	September 14, 2025 – September 15, 2025	600 likely voters	46%	42%	D+4.0
Harper Polling for Carolina Journal	August 11, 2025 – August 12, 2025	600 likely voters	47.3%	39.1%	D+8.2
Victory Insights	July 28, 2025 – July 30, 2025	600 likely voters	44.4%	43.5%	D+0.9
Emerson College	July 28, 2025 – July 30, 2025	1,000 registered voters	46.7%	41.4%	D+5.3

PrivateVoteHub Polls from the VoteHub Polling API, retrieved October 7, 2026, used under CC BY 4.0. How polls are chosen

Prior stages (occurred)

Prior-stage candidate lists are retained as history. A primary candidacy does not imply a general-ballot candidacy, and vice versa.

2026-03-03 — primary

Primary election · 2026-03-03 · DEM contest · fills Six-year Senate term beginning 2027-01-03 (NC Class 2)

Daryl Farrow · DEM
On the official candidate/ballot list
Justin E. Dues · DEM
On the official candidate/ballot list
Marcus W. Williams · DEM
On the official candidate/ballot list
Orrick Quick · DEM
On the official candidate/ballot list
Robert Colon · DEM
On the official candidate/ballot list
Roy Cooper · DEM
On the official candidate/ballot list

2026-03-03 — primary

Primary election · 2026-03-03 · REP contest · fills Six-year Senate term beginning 2027-01-03 (NC Class 2)

Donald M. (Don) Brown · REP
On the official candidate/ballot list
Elizabeth A. Temple · REP
On the official candidate/ballot list
Margot Dupre · REP
On the official candidate/ballot list
Michael Whatley · REP
On the official candidate/ballot list
Donald J. Trump — issued (2025-07-24) · scope: unspecified
Stage scope unspecified — not claimed for this contest · Verified endorsement — archived original — Post does not specify primary vs general — scope recorded as unspecified; attached to the candidate, shown on both stages.
Endorsement source (1)
Every displayed fact traces to the documents below. Verification status describes how the statement was checked, not how reliable a claim is.
Truth Social (@realDonaldTrump) · Verified · archived original
Original statement — Michael David Whatley endorsement (issued, 2025-07-24)
Retrieved 2026-09-27
Archived copy: https://web.archive.org/web/20260828182910/https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114953962646647794; statement text: “Michael Whatley has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114953962646647794
Michele Morrow · REP
On the official candidate/ballot list
Richard Dansie · REP
On the official candidate/ballot list
Thomas Johnson · REP
On the official candidate/ballot list

Economic profile of the state this seat represents

FederalCensus Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 (5-year) · survey period 2020-2024 · State of North Carolina

Median household income$72,388± $324
Poverty rate13.0%± 0.2 ppPopulation for whom poverty status is determined
Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent)48.9%± 0.5 ppRenter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed
Homeownership rate66.6%± 0.3 ppOccupied housing units
Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)35.7%± 0.2 ppPopulation 25 years and over

Technical definitions (ACS tables)

Rent burden (30%+ of income on gross rent): Renter-occupied households paying cash rent for which rent burden is computed: B25070_001 minus B25070_011 (Not computed)

This seat's geography is exactly coterminous with its state (or the District), so the state estimates from the same edition apply directly.

Structural five-year survey conditions — not current monthly conditions. Uncertainties are 90% margins of error: the published ACS margin for median income; Census-formula approximations (ACS handbook ch. 8) for the rates. “Margin unavailable” means the source supplies no usable margin — never zero.

Campaign finances

2025-2026 two-year period (FEC cycle 2026). Committee totals are the FEC’s own candidate-level aggregation — never summed from committee rows here. Independent spending is reported separately and is never part of a candidate’s receipts. An FEC registration is not proof of ballot qualification; candidacy status comes verbatim from the accepted release.

Democratic primary · March 3, 2026

Candidate	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt	Coverage end	Ind. spending for / against
Daryl FarrowDEM — matched, no report filed for this period	—	—	—	—	No report for this period	none reported
Justin E. DuesDEM — matched, no report filed for this period	—	—	—	—	No report for this period	none reported
Marcus W. WilliamsDEM	$5,656	$5,656	$0	$0	March 17, 2026	none reported
Orrick QuickDEM — matched, no report filed for this period	—	—	—	—	No report for this period	none reported
Robert ColonDEM — matched, no report filed for this period	—	—	—	—	No report for this period	none reported
Roy CooperDEM	$34,975,789	$14,258,222	$20,717,567	$0	June 30, 2026	$301,185 / $2,353,436

Republican primary · March 3, 2026

Candidate	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt	Coverage end	Ind. spending for / against
Donald M. (Don) BrownREP — ambiguous identity — multiple FEC candidates match	—	—	—	—	—	—
Elizabeth A. TempleREP — matched, no report filed for this period	—	—	—	—	No report for this period	none reported
Margot DupreREP — matched, no report filed for this period	—	—	—	—	No report for this period	none reported
Michael WhatleyREP	$11,272,504	$7,810,806	$3,461,698	$46,928	June 30, 2026	$5,026,973 / $8,776,174
Michele MorrowREP	$13,014	$13,200	−$187	$0	June 30, 2026	none reported
Richard DansieREP	$2,410	$1,780	$630	$2,400	December 31, 2025	none reported
Thomas JohnsonREP	$6,720	$4,627	$0	$0	April 13, 2026	none reported

General election · November 3, 2026

Candidate	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt	Coverage end	Ind. spending for / against
Michael WhatleyREP	$11,272,504	$7,810,806	$3,461,698	$46,928	June 30, 2026	$5,026,973 / $8,776,174
Michael DublinGRE	$25,276	$16,990	$10,027	$20,000	June 30, 2026	none reported
Roy CooperDEM	$34,975,789	$14,258,222	$20,717,567	$0	June 30, 2026	$301,185 / $2,353,436
Shannon W. BrayLIB — matched, no report filed for this period	—	—	—	—	No report for this period	none reported

“No matching FEC candidate record” means no filing was located — it is never evidence that a candidacy does not exist, and never a ballot-status claim. Candidates’ coverage dates can differ; each row carries its own.

Current officeholder — Congress.gov context

Thom Tillis · Republican · North Carolina · served in 6 Congresses since 2015

Identity verified against the official Congress.gov member record (Bioguide T000476), recorded through 2026-10-04T02:54:23Z. Current officeholding is separate from 2026 candidacy status. Official member website.

Recent housing, employment, energy and infrastructure legislation

From the member's sponsored then cosponsored legislation lists (newest first, limit 30 each), the newest items whose CONFIRMED official legislative subjects intersect {Housing and Community Development, Labor and Employment, Energy, Transportation and Public Works, Water Resources Development} are selected, at most 3 sponsored and 2 cosponsored, 5 total. Items whose relevance cannot be confirmed via the official /subjects endpoint are omitted.

S.470-119 — Respect State Housing Laws Actcosponsor latest action 2025-02-06: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. · subjects: Housing and Community Development
SRES.820-119 — A resolution designating August 7, 2026, as "National Lighthouse Day".cosponsor latest action 2026-08-07: Resolution agreed to in Senate without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (consideration: CR S4553) · subjects: Transportation and Public Works

Sponsorship is a record of introduction or support — not passage, effectiveness, or economic impact.

Key counties by certified votes cast

The counties that cast the most certified 2020 two-party votes within this seat’s geography — a scale fact, not a strategy claim or a forecast. County figures are always county context: they are never allocated or summed into a district estimate. 2020 shares come from the audited county dataset.

1Wake619,533 two-party votes · 63.5% Democratic
2Mecklenburg557,318 two-party votes · 67.8% Democratic
3Guilford280,380 two-party votes · 61.7% Democratic
4Forsyth198,097 two-party votes · 57.1% Democratic
5Durham177,147 two-party votes · 81.7% Democratic
6Buncombe158,927 two-party votes · 60.7% Democratic
7Cumberland144,501 two-party votes · 58.5% Democratic
8New Hanover129,469 two-party votes · 51.1% Democratic
9Union129,107 two-party votes · 37.7% Democratic
10Cabarrus115,399 two-party votes · 45.2% Democratic

Counties and this district

County boundaries for this seat are not published in this release. Explore individual counties on the county map.

Open the county map